Birthers: Ignorance is No Excuse

According to a new poll, 7% of North Carolinians who voted for John McCain do not believe Hawaii to be a part of the United States. They may be older voters who never quite absorbed the news that our 50th state is indeed our 50th state. Sadly, even if the latter is the case, it doesn't explain much about the birther phenomenon.

According to Public Policy Polling (PPP), a North Carolina polling firm, only 24% of self-identified Republican voters in the state believe Barack Obama was born in the United States.  47% do not believe that Obama is American born, and 29% of Republicans aren't sure.

One part of PPP's data might reassure sentient readers somewhat:  7% of those who voted for John McCain do not believe Hawaii to be a part of the United States.  Now perhaps this is just another irrational expression of Obama hatred.  But, it may also be older voters who never quite absorbed the news that our 50th state is indeed our 50th state.

Sadly, even if the latter is the case, it doesn't explain very much.  Last November, Obama carried North Carolina by just 14,000 or so votes out of about 4.3 million cast, the second closest state contest in the nation after Missouri.  Each candidate received a shade over 49% with minor party candidates picking up the rest.  So 7% of the McCain vote is just 3.5% of the total state vote.  McCain received about 2.128 million votes.  3.5% of that is--back of the envelope about 74,000 votes.

Ok, now lets look at the official exit polls for the state presidential race.  McCain got 95% of the Republican vote, Obama got 4%.  McCain also got 95% of the white Republican vote, Obama got 4% of that (probably an almost identical cohort).  The GOP identified vote comprised 31% of the whole (Dems 42%, independents 27%).

So McCain got almost all of that 31% of the vote that was self-identified Republican.  That comes to about 1.275 million of his 2.128 million total (obviously independents and some Democrats comprised the rest of his vote).  So charitably subtract those 74,000 North Carolina McCain voters who claim not to know that Hawaii is an American state (charitably, because let's assume their view is a sign of ignorance, not malice towards Obama).   Now McCain's GOP voting base is down to 1.2 million GOP voters--of which, according to thePPP poll, 76%, or just over 900,000 Republicans in the state, don't think the president of the United States is legitimate, or aren't sure about the matter, needing more proof than the two birth announcements that were placed in Hawaiian newspapers at the time of his birth.

Reminds me of the grim, old joke about Richard Hofstadter's Anti-Intellectualism in American Life:  That it's amazing he condensed the subject into one volume.