GOP Gets Budget Cuts Even Without Shutdown

Three quick thoughts about the possibility of a government shutdown which could happen on Friday if Democrats and Republicans can’t agree on a budget:

1. It’s probably not going to happen because neither side has a clear political advantage in forcing a shutdown. If anything, the calculus for a shutdown favors the Obama administration and they seem not be to raring for a fight right now.

2. Republicans have clearly won the debate over domestic discretionary spending and will get genuine cuts. This doesn’t really solve any underlying fiscal problems since domestic discretionary spending is only about 15 percent of the budget. So long as they get the direction of domestic spending pointing in the right direction (downward in absolute terms) the precise magnitude of the cuts isn’t that important. At some point, calling for more cuts is going to be a political liability with just about everyone since a fair number of popular, necessary-in-some-form services like courts, food inspection, air traffic control, and interstate highways are in the domestic discretionary budget.

3. If Republicans actually want to make a fiscal difference, they should agree to a longer-term continuing resolution or budget that might even throw a few bones to the Democrats. This will let energetic new GOP members turn their attention to the far more pressing issue of reforming the budget-busting defense and entitlement programs.