Behind Giannoulias' Polling Bluster
Alexi Giannoulias' campaign staff spent the majority of yesterday afternoon leaking the results of an internal poll to reporters which showed Giannoulias leading Mark Kirk 49-45%. They also were quick to tout the fact that their polling numbers showed Giannoulias leading Kirk 57-33% among voters that describe themselves as moderates.
Giannoulias' campaign staff comments reveal that the campaign likely leaked the poll for two reasons. First, the campaign staff emphasized that Giannoulias was not being dragged down by his affiliation with the Democratic party and its rapidly diminishing reputation among voters. This message is almost certainly aimed to catch the attention of major Democratic donors in the region that might be on the fence about whether or not it is a prudent investment to throw their weight behind a Democrat with ties to corruption in a political climate in which voters will punish both.
The second reason for releasing the poll is that it gave the Giannoulias people a chance to hammer away at what will probably become the central narrative of their campaign: that Mark Kirk is a Washington insider. Expect each and every speech and comment made by the campaign to be littered with the charge. Giannoulias pollster Michael Bocian made both points, noting that "Despite a deteriorating national climate for Democrats, Alexi Giannoulias is in a strong position to beat Washington insider Mark Kirk in November. Giannoulias strategist Pete Giangreco also banged away at the Washington insider message: “If you could create a poster child for everything that’s wrong with Washington, it would look a lot like Mark Kirk.”
The poll itself, conducted Feb. 9 to 14 among 600 likely voters, doesn't tell us much in terms of where the candidates stand in the race. Kirk is polling inside of the margin of error (four points each way) although if the numbers regarding moderates are true, Kirk has much work to do. That said, his response will undoubtedly be to bang away at Giannoulias’ ties to Rod Blagojevich and the corrupt Chicago Democratic establishment as well as Giannoulias' very, very sketchy ties to Tony Rezko. Given his baggage, labeling Kirk the consummate “Washington insider” will be tough, since his positions suggest that he is anything but a partisan hack....and in this particular election, “Washington politics as usual” will likely win more votes than “Chicago politics as usual.” Thus for Kirk, there is work to be done, but at least in the battle of attacks, Kirk seems to have the upper hand.