Be Afraid of Palin

No matter how ill-considered Palin's statements and actions, her core group of supporters excuse everything on the grounds that she is a social conservative martyr, scorned by her cultural betters. Those excuses are exactly the wrong formula to win back the voters the GOP lost in 2008 and needs to recover to win again.

In today's Washington Post, Bill Kristol asks tauntingly "[T]he mainstream media and the Republican establishment. ... tend not only to dislike and disdain Palin, they also want to bury her chances now as a presidential possibility. What are they afraid of?" That's easy to answer: They - we! - are afraid that Palin's distinctive combination of sex appeal, self-pity, and cultural resentment has a following in today's GOP. We are afraid that it is not utterly inconceivable that she could win the Republican presidential nomination in 2012, and we are afraid that if she did so she would lead the party to a 1964-style debacle, accompanied by unnecessary losses down the ballot. We are afraid that even if Palin does not win the nomination, that she will still help to brand the Republican party in a very damaging way. No national candidacy has ever collapsed so rapidly and totally as Sarah Palin's in 2008. The evidence is strong that she is the only vice presidential nominee in history to have had a significant impact on voting preferences - and negatively so. Since voting day, she has only continued to lose ground. Yet no matter how ill-considered her statements and actions, her core group of supporters excuse everything on the grounds that she is a social conservative martyr, scorned by her cultural betters. Those excuses are exactly the wrong formula to win back the voters the GOP lost in 2008 and needs to recover to win again. My friend and mentor Bill Kristol may think it is cowardly to take counsel of those fears. I think it is irresponsible not to.