Barone On Specter

Michael Barone:

I think this shows the folly, from the point of view of expanding Republican numbers in Congress, of Pat Toomey’s candidacy. His chances of winning a general election, in my judgment, were far lower than they were in 2004, when he ran against Specter and lost the primary by only a 51%-49% margin. In 2004 Pennsylvania voted for John Kerry by just a 51%-48% margin. In 2008 Pennsylvania voted for Barack Obamaby a 54%-44% margin, despite McCain’s frequent campaigning in the state. In between some 200,000 Pennsylvania voters switched their party registration from Republican to Democratic. This does not seem to have been just an opportunistic move to vote in a particular primary but the sign of a genuine switch in allegiance. And it’s not just a Pennsylvania phenomenon. Republican party identification has sagged significantly since 2004 in most parts of the nation.

Pat Toomey was the head of the Club for Growth when it established its strategy of opposing moderates in Republican primaries. That made a certain sense when Republicans had majorities in Congress. It makes a lot less sense now. They don’t have any obvious targets in the Senate now; the two leading moderate Republicans, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine, are not up for reelection until 2010 and 2012.