Avoiding the Deficit Trap

Republicans should be careful not to oversell their ability to tackle the nation's deficit woes.

Earlier this week, a FrumForum contributor discussed the challenge of losing weight, and offered some advice that conservative politicians should heed.

Don't set unrealistic goals for yourself.

If the GOP realizes significant gains this November -- and it appears that they will -- the American people will have put them there in large part because of grave concerns with America's long-term fiscal trajectory.  At the same time, any effort at entitlement reform or massive budget reduction will likely fail both institutionally and politically.  The attempt to follow-through on their promised deficit reduction will open the GOP to the same withering attacks that Republicans faced in 1995.  The failure to follow-through will demoralize the Republican base.

Instead, the GOP should start small.

If all Republican Senate candidates promise to come armed in 2011 with $2 billion in proposed cuts, and to support the cuts proposed by their colleagues, they would be recommending a less than $100 billion cut of a $1.368 trillion discretionary budget that increased this year by 13 percent.

Promising these small cuts is a realistic goal that would further nationalize this year's elections.  By achieving them, Republican Senators would gain critical momentum for future debates.  And the American people would gain some trust in the competence of their legislators, a trust that will be necessary when it comes time for the far more significant deficit reduction that will be needed to shore up America's finances.