Arizona GOP to Moderates: This Party's Already Full

For over a decade, registered independents in Arizona have been able to vote in either party's primary. Now, however, a team of GOP-sponsored lawyers is looking to close the August Republican primary, freezing out moderate voters.

For over a decade, registered independents in Arizona have been able to vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary. Now, however, a team of Republican Party-sponsored lawyers is feverishly looking for ways to close off the August Republican primary to registered independents. The process began in January after Arizona Republican leaders voted to look into the change.

The proposed change begs two questions: First, Is this another sign of the Republican Party’s desire for ideological “purity”? Second, will a closed Republican primary benefit Hayworth or McCain?

The Arizona Republican bid to close its non-presidential primary is almost certainly an attempt to encourage ideological purity – a popular theme among Republicans these days. Having a GOP base-only primary would ensure more conservative candidates and likely ensure less state-level success.

It would also shut out a substantial portion of Arizona voters. As of 2010, there are almost as many independents in Arizona as Republicans or Democrats. At the moment, there are 929,000 unaffiliated and independent voters in Arizona, compared to 1,035,000 Democrats and 1.1 million Republicans.

Conservatives in the Arizona Republican party are feeling the pressure of changing demographics; a change in rules would ensure that they maintain power in the GOP. As Arizona welcomes more new residents from California and other states, the state has become less and less conservative. It is has gone from red to purple. The number of independent voters in the Grand Canyon state has grown by 105,000 since just 2008.

Accordingly, a primary election of consisting of only hardcore Republicans is a potential disaster for McCain. For over a decade, conservative Arizona Republicans have been deeply dissatisfied with McCain. This year is their best chance to get rid of him in over a decade and promises to be an opportunity they will work hard to seize.

A lack of independents may mean a lack of moderates and center-left voters who would pull the lever for McCain or, at least, against Hayworth.

On the other hand, a closed primary may shut out independent Tea Party voters that would have voted for Hayworth. Tea Partiers prize their political independence. Arizona Tea Party leaders, for instance, refused to endorse either Hayworth or McCain. The national movement also refused to join CPAC and, instead, opted to hold a separate convention in Tennessee.

Hayworth’s entire election so far is based on Tea Party enthusiasm. Would he stand a chance drawing on voters from the political mainstream?

Most likely, however, Tea Partiers would register as Republicans for the year, vote for Hayworth and then re-register as independents after defeating McCain.