Analysts: Afghan Taliban May Split from Al Qaeda
The AP reports:
Now that Osama bin Laden is dead, some analysts are speculating that al-Qaeda and its Afghan Taliban allies could go their separate ways, increasing the chances for a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan.
Osama bin Laden's death is likely to revive a debate within the Afghan Taliban about their ties to al-Qaida – a union the U.S. insists must end if the insurgents want to talk peace.
The foundation of their relationship is believed to be rooted in bin Laden's long friendship with the Taliban's reclusive one-eyed leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar, who might now find it more palatable to break with al-Qaida and negotiate a settlement to the war. Much may depend on the newly chastened power-broker next door: Pakistan.
"I think now is an opportunity for the Taliban to end their relations with al-Qaida," said Waheed Muzhda, a Kabul-based analyst and former foreign ministry official under the Taliban regime that was toppled in late 2001.
Zabiullah Mujahid, a spokesman for the Afghan Taliban, said it was too early to comment.
But the death of the world's top terrorist gives momentum toward finding a political solution to the nearly decade-long war, according to analysts familiar with U.S. officials' stepped-up effort this year to push a peace agenda.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai and the Obama administration have said they will negotiate with any member of the Taliban who embraces the Afghan constitution, renounces violence and severs ties with al-Qaida. Informal contacts have been made in recent months with high-ranking Taliban figures, but no formal peace talks are under way.
The possible opportunity comes just as the spring fighting season is kicking into gear. The U.S.-led coalition hopes to hold ground in southern Afghanistan gained as a result of the addition last year of an extra 30,000 American troops. The Taliban's goal remains undermining the Afghan government, discrediting its security forces and driving the nearly 100,000 U.S. troops and other foreign forces out of the country.
Even before bin Laden was killed by Navy SEALs at a compound in Pakistan on Monday, the links between the al-Qaida and the Afghan Taliban had weakened during the 10 years since the Sept. 11 attacks, Muzhda said. Mullah Omar's refusal to hand over bin Laden after the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon prompted the U.S.-led assault on Afghanistan that ousted the Taliban from power. By siding with bin Laden, Mullah Omar's hardline regime lost control of the nation.
The goals of the two movements are not closely aligned. While al-Qaida is focused on worldwide jihad against the West and establishment of a religious superstate in the Muslim world, the Afghan Taliban have focused on their own country and have shown little to no interest in attacking targets outside Afghanistan. The car bombing in May 2010 in New York's Times Square was linked to the Pakistani Taliban – an autonomous group on the other side of the border.
But breaking with al-Qaida would mean forgoing some reliable funding channels in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Syria, according to a Western intelligence officer. Mullah Omar's association with bin Laden also gave him clout, said the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence.
Al-Qaida shares its technical expertise in explosives and helps the Taliban traffic narcotics made with opium poppies grown in Afghanistan, he said. For their part, the Taliban allow al-Qaida to come into Afghanistan on the backs of Taliban fighters.
