A Republican Opportunity In Upstate New York
Republicans and Democrats are fighting hard to retake the congressional seat once filled by new NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. The seat, NY-20, used to be safely Republican: 68% of the vote in 2000, 73% in 2002, 66% in 2004. Even now the GOP enjoys a 70,000 voter registration advantage in the district.
Gillibrand – a Democrat but a protégé of New York’s one-time Republican Senator Al D’Amato – won the seat in 2006 against a scandal-plagued GOP incumbent with 53.1% of the vote. Then last fall, she ran again and trounced former NY Secretary of State Sandy Treadwell 62%-38%.
The voters’ message to the GOP was crystallized. It went something like, “We may be registered Republicans, we may fall on the conservative side of gun control and other cultural issues, and many of us may be veterans or know veterans who fought in Iraq or Afghanistan and honor their service deeply, BUT on the issues that pertain to ‘Main Street’ America’s financial health, there’s little doubt in our minds that the Democrats have our backs.”
Both recent defeats were harsh and humiliating for the New York Republicans. Now it’s redemption time. NY Republicans have found an outstanding candidate in Jim Tedisco. Tedisco is, in word and deed, a reform Republican. An Assemblyman since 1983 who became Assembly Minority Leader in 2005, Tedisco espouses a conservatism that is simple, sober, and smart. He believes that government should be used carefully to keep taxes low, jobs afloat, and the economy free and functioning, all in the name of appealing to and promoting a prosperous middle class. He also understands the importance of cutting taxes for the district’s many small businesses that provide employment to most of the private sector, another service to Middle Americans in New York. In the Assembly, he’s pushed for bold reforms such as a property tax cap and greater oversight and transparency in the budget process.
Tedisco is visibly, aggressively running a Northeastern campaign, tailored not to any rightwing base but a middle class in need, with the serious problems of 2009, not 1980, in mind. It’s not a surprise that members of Tedisco’s staff have told me they’ve read David Frum’s Comeback.
Yet the race is tough and tight. President Obama carried the district in 2008, and remains strongly popular despite the district’s Republican orientation. Tedisco’s opponent, venture capitalist Scott Murphy, has money to spend and the White House behind him. Starting 21 points behind, he has now closed the gap to just 4.
This race offers one of the best opportunities in the country for a Republican pickup. If we cannot achieve it with Jim Tedisco, the road back to a majority will suddenly look longer and more difficult than ever.