A Big Night for the Tea Party

Last night's upset should put the GOP on notice that TARP and the bailouts are toxic to the party's base: ultimately, these issues did in Mike Castle's Senate bid.

What profiteth a man if he loses his soul and gains the whole world?  Apparently Delaware primary voters thought Mike Castle would throw away the soul of the Republican Party.  The Tea Party Express, Senator DeMint and Sarah Palin are stronger, nationwide than the Republican establishment, within the Republican Party.  This has caused my lead prediction to come a cropper.

Rather than squeaking by, Mike Castle lost by five points in Delaware.  There is great irony in this.  Congressmen Castle for years avoided the tough election fights against Democrats.  Again and again he approached the senate race and then drew back.  Now with the path cleared for him, and in a Republican year with no incumbent all was golden.  Up comes pretty, troubled Christine O’Donnell and the Tea Party Express and now he is never going to be senator.  This may be a problem with “moderates” in general.  Unwilling to take risks they cannot counter or understand those with nothing to lose.  I expect now to lose this seat.  But Republicans must be on notice, TARP, bailouts and cap ‘n tax are toxic to the party.  It was not social issues but economic liberalism that killed Mike Castle’s chance at the Senate.

In New Hampshire, I may yet be right!  Ayotte is leading Lamontagne by 1% with 87% of the vote counted (what is going on in New Hampshire that they are counting so slowly?).  Some think Kelly Ayotte’s statement that she would have voted to confirm Justice Sotomayor hurt her.  I think this year either solid conservative can win but prefer Ayotte both because pro-life women are the most under represented Republican constituency in elected office and because it would mean my prediction percentage would go up!  For those who think fratricide is only a Republican trait, I give you New Hampshire, RealClearPolitics reports that in New Hampshire’s 2nd congressional district, a conservative talk radio host was defeated by center-right candidate Charlie Bass in the primary but that the Democrats chose a candidate far to the left of the district’s voters when they could have had a moderate.

I was sadly correct about Washington D.C., where Mayor Adrian Fenty lost.  No more improving dog parks.  I just hope that his opponent keeps the focus on schools and their performance.  Unfortunately he ran on a jobs platform and that usually means featherbedding and union appeasement when a Democrat wins.  I was also right about Rangel who coasted to victory.  At least we will have Charlie Rangel to kick around.  The Democrats will not clean out their own stables, while Republicans often do.

In New York’s Republican gubernatorial race Carl Paladino beat Rick Lazio.  I thought about this as I watched the returns and I’m not unhappy.  I like Rick Lazio who is a good and decent man and a fine public servant.  But Paladino undisputably will try to shake up Albany if he gets there.  Can Andrew Cuomo credibly say that?  If we had any chance to win anything in New York this year it was by doing something different.  Say what you want Paladino is different. He sounds likes he’s running as Chris Christie.  Also, good old Joe DioGuardi a Republican warhorse who was a congressman twenty years ago won a chance to run against Senator Gillibrand.  I don’t think he stands a chance, but this year who knows?

Finally, and the most gratifying election of the night, in New York’s 1st congressional district, Chris Cox came in third in a three-man race.

It’s a wild year coast-to-coast.  The Tea Party Express is taking scalps.  They have shown strength, organization and passion in Republican primaries; now it’s time to see if they can also affect general elections.