A Battle Crist Can't Win
A new poll conducted by McLaughlin and Associates slots Charlie Crist (33%) ahead of both Republican Marco Rubio (29%) and Democrat Kendrick Meek (15%). The poll though found that Crist is actually taking away more votes from the Democrat Meek (43% of self described liberals say they support Crist, while only 33% of liberals say they are supporting the Democratic candidate) than Rubio (56% of Republicans support Rubio, only 22% said they support Crist). Jim McLaughlin told the Orlando Sentinal that the poll’s numbers are not positive for Crist. For instance, he points out that Crist's current support among African-Americans is at 36% (compared to Meek's 45%) but McLaughlin predicted that Crist would be "lucky to get 10 percent of the African-American vote on election day".
The dilemma that faces all independent candidates is that generally speaking, if the race is close, voters tend to head back to the major party candidates. Crist needs to hold on to at least some of his liberal support, however he also needs to do considerably better among Republicans if he is going to win. Running right, however, will compromise his support on the left. Crist may face a battle he simply can't win. That's certainly what McLaughlin thinks: "“I would make a pretty good bet he not only will not win, he will run an embarrassing third,’’ says McLaughlin. “I think he’s done politically.’’