2012 Won't be Won in Chicago

Team Obama's set up HQ in Chicago and launched their 2012 bid. But can they govern as well as they campaign, especially when so far removed from Washington?

Well, the suspense is over. President Barack Obama is going to be a candidate for reelection in 2012.  Whew!

It’s not clear why such an announcement was required at precisely this juncture---it’s not as if there have been a lot of Democrats wondering, “Will he or won’t he?” And it’s unlikely any serious challenge for the nomination will be mounted against him (although “serious” is not always a word associated with presidential aspirations, and Democrats do have an established record---if not propensity---for devouring their own).

For now, at least, what suspense exists is mostly on the Republican side. Who’s in? Who’s not? Who might be? And, of course, will she?

The Iowa caucuses are now just about ten months away, and that will be when the official sorting out process begins. Who among the possible GOP candidates will actually decide to run will be known by early summer; and, if history is any guide, we should have a sense of the overall strength of the field before autumn. Anything predicted or postulated before then should be taken with a huge grain of salt, as there will be scores of unanticipated twists and turns along the way. What might seem obvious today may appear a whole lot less so months from now. Does anyone remember, from 1979, President John Connelly?

My chief question about President Obama’s prospects has nothing to do with his ultimate opponent; instead I am wondering whether or not he and his team will prove as adept at campaigning while governing as they were when running as a non-incumbent challenger in 2007 and 2008. In that context Barack Obama was absolutely terrific; while not perfect, he was one of the best presidential candidates I have ever observed, from near or far. And his campaign was as close to perfect as one can get in that business.

Unfortunately, neither the President nor members of his administration have yet proven that they are as good at the politics of governing as they are at the politics of campaigning. And, frankly, a successful reelection effort will require that they be very good at both.

While the core staff of the reelection campaign is made up of top notch strategists and operatives, that is just a start. Personally, I think that they will discover at some point that the decision to put the campaign headquarters in Chicago was a mistake, that it will make the legitimate connection between governing and campaigning more difficult than it needs to be.

The perils of that connection were illustrated, as well, in the timing of the President’s reelection announcement. A major budget battle is being waged on Capitol Hill, while America is involved in three major (and I believe appropriate) military actions abroad. Those two factors would have argued, to me at least, for a later declaration of candidacy.

I plan to support Barack Obama’s reelection, although perhaps with a little less enthusiasm than was the case in 2008. At this point I simply want more reasons to demonstrate that support, not fewer.

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